US farmer sentiment improved modestly in October, though the outlook remains sharply divided between crop and livestock producers, according to the latest Purdue University–CME Group Ag Economy Barometer.
The barometer – based on a monthly survey of 400 producers acress the country - rose 3 points from September to 129, driven almost entirely by a stronger Index of Current Conditions, which climbed eight points from September to 130. The Index of Future Expectations held steady at 129, suggesting continued uncertainty about the farm economy.
Livestock producers remain upbeat, buoyed by record-high profitability in the beef sector. In contrast, crop producers continue to face slim margins across most major commodities, tempering overall optimism. “It’s a tale of two economies,” said the report, released Tuesday.
The October survey, conducted from Oct. 13–17, found that farmers overall expect weaker financial performance in 2025 compared to 2024. While most livestock operators expect conditions similar to last year, crop producers anticipate softer results due to lower commodity prices and rising input costs.
Policy uncertainty remains a major factor shaping sentiment. While 58% of farmers believe the U.S. tariff policy will strengthen the agricultural economy in the long run — up slightly from September — confidence has waned since spring, when 70% expressed that view. Notably, the percentage of producers in October (16%) who said they were uncertain about the impact of tariff policies on the agricultural economy was double that of both April and May.
Despite those doubts, more than 70% of respondents still believe the U.S. is headed in the “right direction,” reflecting cautious optimism amid a challenging year.
The survey also revealed how corn growers plan to adjust in 2026 in response to weak prices. Nearly one-third said they won’t change production practices, but many plan to cut costs: 29% will reduce phosphorus applications, 27% will switch to lower-cost seed traits or varieties, and smaller percentages intend to reduce nitrogen use or seeding rates.
